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Playbook 11Five Numbers, Two Scenarios, One Decision

Choose a Health Plan in an Hour

Open enrolment closes, you pick the cheapest premium, and a bill arrives anyway. This is the hour that stops that happening.

What you end up holding

Compare plans on total annual cost in a good year and a bad one, and choose deliberately instead of by premium.

The workflow — 4 steps

  1. 1

    Find the five numbers on each plan: premium, deductible, copay, coinsurance, out-of-pocket maximum.

    The out-of-pocket maximum is the real answer to 'what is the worst case', and the one nobody points at.

    Open Health Plan Chooser
  2. 2

    Compare total annual cost twice — once assuming a healthy year, once assuming something goes badly wrong.

    The crossover between the two is usually one hospital visit wide.

    Open Health Plan Chooser
  3. 3

    Check whether a high-deductible plan on the list qualifies for an HSA.

    Triple tax-advantaged, never expires, and behaves like a retirement account after 65.

  4. 4

    Work out what the premium leaves you each month, then budget on that.

    Most premiums are pre-tax, which lowers your taxable income.

    Open Paycheck Reality Check
The evidence

Framing Changes the Choice

Preferences between the same objective outcomes reverse depending on how the options are described.

Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, prospect theory

A plan described by its monthly premium and the same plan described by its worst-case annual cost produce different choices from the same person. Insurers present the premium first because it is the frame that sells; comparing total annual cost in two scenarios removes the frame and leaves the arithmetic.

The older idea

Provision Before the Season Turns

It is best to prepare for the days of necessity.

Aesop, The Ant and the Grasshopper

The cheapest plan is the one that assumes nothing will happen. Insurance is the one purchase where you are buying the bad year, not the good one, and pricing it on the good year is how people end up uninsured in the way that matters.

Go deeper on this

A playbook ends in a document. These journeys change what you can do — same subject, more of it.